BJ Upton may be owned in 98.6% of fantasy leagues, but that only makes his bad year even more painful to watch

Bob on 06 8, 2009

What on Earth is wrong with BJ Upton? The Tampa Bay Rays center fielder has struggled miserably at the plate this season.

BJ, or ‘Bossman Junior’ (his original name is Melvin, I might change my name too if it was Melvin, but I don’t think it’d be ‘Bossman Junior’), has only 15 RBI’s to go along with a measly 3 homeruns. The former second overall pick in the 2002 MLB Draft has a dismal batting average of .223 so far this season, and to say he is underachieving would be an understatement. To his credit, Upton is errorless in the field and has stolen 17 bases so far.

The speedy outfielder has been criticized for his lack of hustle previously. Tampa Bay’s manager Joe Maddon has disciplined his apathetic center fielder before, and he should consider sticking Upton on the bench again if his play keeps trend. The guy just doesn’t seem motivated.

Fantasy owners have been waiting for the Bossman to break out of his slump, but it has yet to happen. ESPN reports that BJ is 98.6% owned in fantasy leagues, but is he really worthy of a roster spot? I’m starting to think his name should appear on the list of free agents.

Upton was a hero for his ball club in the post-season last year, hitting 7 long balls in the 3 post-season series they played in to help his Rays become American League Champions. If he’s waiting to go on a tear in the post-season this year he might be disappointed. BJ Upton is an extremely important player for his team, and with an AL East division that is so talented, his Rays are going to need him if they have plans on returning to the post-season. He has got to step his game up.

I think it’s fair to say that BJ Upton is overrated. He had a great year in ’07, going yard 24 times, batting in 82 runs and swiping 22 bags, but his production is steadily decreasing. He hit only 9 homers and 67 RBIs last season, and ESPN projects 9 HRs and only 46 RBIs for this 2009 season. Those are pretty mediocre numbers if you ask me.

Upton has a boatload of talent, but it’s starting to become clearer that he is too much of a head case. There are plenty of professional athletes whose mental midget syndrome drastically puts a damper on their production, and Bossman Junior is a prime example of this. My guess is he is suffering from chronic jealousy because of his younger brother Justin, whose emergence is one of the better stories in the MLB this season. Maybe he should take notes.

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  • You shouldn't be analyzing bas
    Learn what baseball stats actually matter and do some actual research before you post stuff like this
  • Bob
    15 RBIs and a .221 batting average through 50 games doesn't matter?
  • Vic
    Labrum surgery is the reason for the slump. The kid can really really play. He can hit the best pitchers in the league hard.
  • rich101682
    Upton is not overrated. All of last season, he was playing with a torn labrum. Even with that, he still pounded the best pitchers in the league during the playoffs. He's still coming back from offseason shoulder surgery and never had a spring training. Wait until he's had another healthy season before you make claims like this.
  • BJ's Mother
    Arguing about RBIs from a lead-off hitter? I guess because "fantasy" stats are so important, you'll note that BJ is ranked 26th overall in Yahoo Fantasy Baseball for the last month, with 22 R, 3HR, 12 RBI, 10 SB, 15 BB, no errors, and a .277 avg.

    He had a shortened spring training due to recovering from shoulder surgery and being hit on the hand by a pitch, started slow, and is now hitting fine.

    Conclusion: You are not very good at evaluating players.
  • Bob
    Upton has an OPS (On Base + Slugging Percentage) of .648...the lowest it's been since '06 (.894 in '07, .784 in '08)

    @BJ's Mother - Yes, I'm making a case about RBI's from a lead-off hitter. Granted lead-off hitters bat in less runs, but he is on pace for 46 RBIs this season, which is considerably less than his previous seasons, not to mention that he is batting .221.

    And as for this hot streak...it happens all the time, any player in the league can get hot, but eventually they will cool off. In regards to the entire season in which he's played 50 games, not just a little hot streak, he has greatly underachieved. You're setting yourself up for disappointment if you expect this little streak to keep trend for the the rest of the season.
  • rich101682
    If you think he's so overrated, leave a comment with what you think his final stats of the year will be. Then we can come back and see how wrong you are at the end of the year.
  • Bob
    Here's what ESPN projects...

    G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP
    154 619 109 136 33 3 9 45 91 190 51 12 .220 .318

    OPS SLG
    .645 .327

    I expect most of these numbers to be a bit higher. I'm not claiming to be a baseball expert, but if I had to take a guess I'd go with 10-15 HR, around 60 RBIs, batting avg in the range of .230 - .250 and he'll continue to swipe bases (doesn't take much mental toughness to steal a base). It doesn't take a baseball expert to see the lack of motivation with Upton, hence the disciplinary actions taken by Maddon last season. Not saying he's a bad player..he's got a ton of talent, but he's flat out overrated.

    The AL East is no joke this year, and Upton is a key piece to the puzzle. I know he's on a little streak, but he needs to be consistent if the Rays are looking to make it back to the post-season. I guess we'll see how it shakes out.
  • BJ's Mother
    Why do you assume BJ is on a hot streak now, instead of starting the year on a cold streak? HOW DO YOU KNOW HIS TEMPERATURE?
  • @BJ's Mother, congratulations for figuring out the intranets and making your way to Bareknucks. But I like your point, he could have been starting on a cold streak. Then again, who's to say that 2007 season wasn't a hot season?
  • haha
    Good jokes
  • yousuck@life
    Bob, you do realize that those ESPN projections are based on pace right? For example, if a batter hits a homer run on the first game of the season, then these projections would predict that he would hit 162 home runs for the season. Obviously, that is very unlikely to happen. These projections do not factor in ability, but instead are based on past performance for the season.
  • yousuck@life
  • yousuck@life
    Clearly, you think you know a good bit about baseball when actually you know verty little. The above are some links to help you get more informed. Don't come back to us with baseball "analysis" until you are more educated on the subject. Thanks.
  • Bob
    @ yousuck@life - haha nice name...Yes, I understand those are projections, hence my response to rich:
    "I expect most of these numbers to be a bit higher. I’m not claiming to be a baseball expert, but if I had to take a guess I’d go with 10-15 HR, around 60 RBIs, batting avg in the range of .230 - .250 and he’ll continue to swipe bases (doesn’t take much mental toughness to steal a base)"

    I also know that Upton will cool off (last night's game for example: 4 AB, 0 hits, 1 BB, 2 Ks)
  • yousuck@life
    "Avg, RBI and HR are not important? Hmm… Must be true if Joe Posnanski said it." Nice ad hominem argument. Maybe you should actually read it.

    More AVG stuff if you're still not convinced. It is important, but not very. It is vastly overrated. If you don't think it is overrated, then give a reason. I have at least presented evidence.

    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/40132-on-bas...

    wOBA from The Book
    http://www.insidethebook.com/woba.shtml
  • Bob
    I'll check the links out, appreciate the input. Upton's on base percentage is down from the previous seasons. I'd say AVG and OBP are pretty important for a leadoff batter, especially when his BB% is down from last season as well.
  • yousuck@life
    AVG really doesn't matter that much. And yes his stats are down, but it is a small sample size. He is due for statistical regression. You can see he will cool off like he did last night, but he is far more likely to to have an OBP around .360 like the rest of his career than what has happened thus far. Obviously, it isn't a guarantee as he could end up on either side of this number due to statistical variance, but to say he is overrated based on just 50 games is inaccurate. If you said he was underperforming thus far, then I would agree.
  • rich101682
    What is it that makes you think Upton isn't motivated this year, aside from the fact that he's been reprimanded once or twice in the past for not hustling all the time? Just because he isn't playing well doesn't mean he doesn't care. Like you said, no errors in the field, so he's not losing focus. If anything, it seemed like in the beginning parts of the season, he was trying TOO hard and pressing at the plate.

    Calling for someone to be benched is a pretty major thing, and I feel like you're basing it on absolutely nothing you've seen this season. Have you seen any Rays games in 2009?
  • Bob
    @rich - Agreed, calling for him to be benched was over the top. Regardless of his offensive struggles this season, the Rays need his defensive abilities in the outfield.
  • Davelrogers
    Is this woody paige?
  • @Bob, you didn't answer Rich's question. Have you seen any Rays games in 2009? Are you just basing your analysis on the fact that you drafted him in the first round of your fantasy baseball league and he's wrecked your team because of it?
  • Bob
    I've seen plenty of Rays games this season. No, I didn't draft him in my fantasy league, I did however get his brother in FA. And I'm not sure anyone took BJ in the 1st round...
  • BJ's Mother
    BJ started off tonight's game with a single. Must be getting hot again.

    ...
  • Bob
    1 for 5, not bad...
  • Vic
    WHOA BOB....that ESPN prediction is only an extrapolation of what he has done so far....so you're dumb.
  • @Vic - Wow, I completely missed that. I think I'm just going to leave Bob to live in his results-based-analysis fantasy land while I go back to the world of normal.
  • Bob
    Haha...If you check out the previous comments, you will see that I am well aware of that Vic. I expect his all around numbers to be higher than projected. Got to jet, it's busy here in fantasy land.
  • rich101682
    Upton's #'s over the last month: .336, 22 runs, 20 RBIs, 3 homers, 14 steals

    Eat your words. Only Pujols has been better the last 30 days.
  • Bob
    Where are all the Upton supporters now? The guy is a bum!
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