New York Mets will continue to do what the Mets do best, collapse at the end of the season

Logan on 05 21, 2009

Earlier this month we at Bareknucks.com featured this piece’s American League counterpart. This article will serve the same basic purpose as the previous one, but with one slight change. As the title indicates, we will be breaking it up into multiple articles, four to be exact, in order to get as in depth as possible. The first three articles will focus on potential “contenders” and why they will fail to reach the World Series, while the fourth and final article will explain why my pick will.

*Again, it is important to note that if your team isn’t even mentioned in this series of articles, it is based on the fact that I just don’t see the potential for a World Series run at all by that particular team. This is especially significant when discussing the National League, as it is much more balanced than the American League.

Anyway, let’s get underway:

Your favorite National League team will not reach the 2009 World Series unless: You’re a Los Angeles Dodgers fan.

Contender #1: New York Mets (21-18)

If championships were won on paper, the New York Mets would be in tremendous shape. Unlike some successful teams who win based on one certain aspect of the game, the “Amazin’ Mets” feature an equally balanced attack of pitching and offense. However, that doesn’t necessarily always equal a World Series Championship. It is my belief that this will be the case for the 2009 New York Mets.

Offensively, the Mets are right at the top of the National League in many of the major statistics. As of 05/18, the Mets lead the league lead with a .291 batting average. The Mets also find themselves near the top of the league in walks (161), and are third with a mere 211 strikeouts. Only the Philadelphia Phillies, Washington Nationals, and Los Angeles Dodgers have scored more runs than the 189 plated by New York. Led by Carlos Beltran, David Wright, and Jose Reyes, the Mets offense also features the always important element of speed. With 42 stolen bases as a team, the Mets find themselves again atop the league in another offensive statistic. Carlos Beltran is having an outstanding year thus far at the plate, looking similar to the player we saw emerge in the 2004 postseason as a member of the Houston Astros. Beltran is hitting .378 with 6 HR, 28 RBI, and 6 SB. Somewhat surprisingly, the Mets are lacking power to this point in the season. New York is 14th in the National League with only 26 home runs through their first 37 games. Carlos Beltran leads the team with a grand total of 6, while the team‘s second leading home run hitter (Carlos Delgado, 4), has been placed on the disabled list as of 05/16 due to hip problems.

From a pitching standpoint, the Mets are again impressive on paper. With the best overall pitcher in the National League (Johan Santana) leading the staff, New York has an immediate advantage every five games. However, after their ace’s turn in the rotation, the Mets don’t have a solid consistent starter to fall back on. No other starter has an ERA under 4.24, and Oliver Perez remains one of the most bi-polar starters in the majors. The Mets spent a pretty penny patching up a bullpen that proved brutal the past couple seasons by acquiring the likes of J.J. Putz and Francisco Rodriguez, and both have been a serious upgrade. However, like any knowledgeable baseball follower will tell you, starting pitching is the most important part of any team come playoff time. The 2009 Mets remind me a lot of the 2008 Brewers, both had/have potent offenses and a tremendous #1 starter, but a lack of overall starting pitching will ultimately prove deadly.

Aside from pitching problems, the Mets are a mess on the base paths. Sure, they have a lot of steals, but I’m talking a lack of discipline. If you watch New York, you’ll notice plenty of base runners being thrown out attempting to stretch base hits or take an extra base. Jose Reyes is guilty more than anyone else. Aggressiveness is a positive normally, but in this case, maybe the Mets’ should tone it down a notch.

Ultimately, a lack of starting pitching will lead to the demise of the 2009 New York Mets, despite having the best starting pitcher in all of baseball. Potency in relation to offense is always an important piece to any championship caliber team, but without at least three above average starters going into a given playoff series, offensive run support can almost be rendered useless.

COMING SOON: Part II (Philadelphia Phillies)