The NBA Draft Lottery and What This Means for the Top-5 Picks

on 05 28, 2010

Last Tuesday, my nervous breakdown came around eight o’clock.  And no, it wasn’t became my second semester grades were finally posted.

I have been a dedicated New Jersey Nets fan my entire life.  My young self was there for those two Finals trips… and sweeps.  But the ultimate test came last year after an abysmal 12-70 season.

I didn’t back down from the Nets, and in return, I received mockery and verbal beatings from my “friends” at college.    “How can anyone root for a team who air-balls free throws and starts players like Chairman Yi Jianlian?” they’d say.  But the thing was, my “friends” were clueless.  They didn’t understand much about the NBA—no less the New Jersey Nets.  Other than the fact that they lost a pathetic amount of games, the Nets weren’t a newsworthy team.  Plus, their highlights were mostly designed to make casual fans laugh, rather than start rooting for them.  Granted, the consistently awful play wasn’t helping, but you get my point.

I’ve always been an optimist when it comes to sports.  When you are a Buffalo Bills, New Jersey Nets and Boston Red Sox fan your whole life, you almost have to be.  But the question here is whether or not my optimism is hopeless.   Gah, now I’m sidetracking.  Let’s get to the issue at hand.

The point I’m trying to make is that the Nets are not a 12-70 team.  They have a 12-70 record, yes.  But the talent on that team is not one that deserves the label of being 12-70.  Brook Lopez is quickly developing into one of the best young centers in the league, Devin Harris is an All-Star caliber point guard when healthy, Terrence Williams had a phenomenal final quarter of the season (for a rookie on the worst team in the NBA, anyway), Courtney Lee, although horribly inconsistent, is a very decent shooter and Chris Douglas-Roberts (if the Nets pick up his option) could turn out to be a steal in the 2008 NBA Draft.  Again, I’m getting sidetracked.  To make a long explanation short, this team has all the tools to become a playoff team with some of the right tweaks.  But your casual NBA fan won’t know this, because your casual NBA fan doesn’t know who the Nets could become.

Look, the problems with the Nets last year were limitless.  I know this and I’m their biggest supporter.  But the incompetent coaching, the horrible bench and the lack of leadership and teamwork all contributed to the God-awful product put on the court by the cheapest owner in all of basketball, Bruce Ratner.  With Brooklyn and a Russian majority owner on the horizon, I knew this team could turn it around.  But all of it started last Tuesday with the NBA Draft Lottery.

This is why I had a nervous breakdown.  I knew that if the ping-pong balls didn’t fall my way… it wouldn’t be good.  My biased and optimistic logic was this: if the Nets get that first pick, take John Wall, we have a very, very, very, VERY good chance of taking LeBron James from the clutches of Cleveland, New York and Chicago.  I felt pretty damn good about this—after all, why wouldn’t he want to play with Wall and Lopez, in Brooklyn, making more money than he would anywhere else in the league?  I don’t think money is going to be LeBron’s deciding factor of where he plays next season, but an owner worth $17 billion cannot hurt in any way.

Of course, in typical Nets-dom, this all fell through.  The Nets didn’t get the first pick.  They got the third.  I would’ve even taken the second—Evan Turner JUST MIGHT be enough to reel in LeBron.  But we couldn’t even get that.

I was furious.  Luckily I was alone, because I was throwing pillows and hats and books all over my living room.  It was embarrassing.  But I’ve calmed down now.  It has been a week, after all.  I’m not that crazy.

So, before I start pulling hair out of my head just thinking about what happened, let’s take a look at what these stupid ping pong balls all mean.

(fast forward to June 24, 2010 at 7:00)
(and an image of David Stern at the MSG altar, probably wearing a weird suit and with a goofy smile on his face)

“With the first pick in the 2010 NBA Draft, the Washington Wizards select…”
John Wall, PG Kentucky

What this means:

This is perhaps the most obvious pick in the entire draft.  Wall would go first regardless of who got that slot, even if it was Utah.  To state the obvious, Wall is extremely athletic, is good at nearly everything on the court and can win games without scoring a single basket.  He’s already better than half the point guards in the NBA—and he hasn’t even played a game yet.

Here’s the thing: Gilbert Arenas is going to be a problem.  I know that Washington has stated they are behind Gilbert, but quite frankly, I think the only reason they said this was because they didn’t expect to land that first pick.  They want to give Wall the best situation possible.  I just cannot imagine the Wizards willfully keeping Gilbert in town without a fight to run him out.  I don’t know if he’ll be in a Wizards uniform or not, because I don’t know who’d take him, but I do think that Washington needs to do something.  Wall is the guy that will change that franchise around—but it will be a whole hell of a lot more difficult if Double-Oh Zero is still around.

Side note: Washington is the luckiest city ever.  Strasburg, Harper, McNabb and Wall in one year?!?!?!?!?! That’s insane.

“With the second pick in the 2010 NBA Draft, the Philadelphia 76’ers select…”
Evan Turner, SG Ohio State

What this means:

For the record, and this could again be the hopeless optimist in me, but I think there is about a 10% chance that Philly doesn’t take Turner here.  The reason is, while Turner would provide some excellent depth at the guard/forward position for the Sixers, it doesn’t address the need that a big man would.  My (please, please, please, dear-God) theory, DeMarcus Cousins has a big-time combine, proves himself and gets taken second.  But, there is a small chance of that happening, so let’s talk realistic here.

Evan Turner provides depth at that guard/forward position.  He will probably come in and start right away, but this is a team that does have some decent players that could make for a good backcourt rotation.  I’m talking guys like Jrue Holliday, Andre Iguodala, Jason Kapono and Louis Williams.  Throw Evan Turner into that mix, and you are looking at an excellent guard set for Philly.

“With the third pick in the 2010 NBA Draft, the New Jersey Nets select…”
DeMarcus Cousins, F Kentucky

What this means:

He’s not the Kentucky stud I wanted, but I still feel like Cousins could be an asset to New Jersey.  Here’s why: he fills a need and he’ll make an immediate impact.  I’m not buying Derrick Favors here—the guy was a late bloomer at Georgia Tech and I feel like he’ll be a project player.  New Jersey wants to win now.  They have to take Cousins and risk all that “quality guy” crap.  I think at the combine, he’ll lose his attitude and showcase the player he can be in the NBA.   The kid was a pro in college, has an NBA-ready game and simply dominated immediately.  If it truly is a matter of win now, you got to take DeMarcus Cousins.

“With the fourth pick in the 2010 NBA Draft the Minnesota Timberwolves select…”
Wesley Johnson, F Syracuse

What this means:

Wes seems like the perfect choice here.  Minnesota has big guys in Kevin Love and Al Jefferson.  They have a strong point guard in Jonny Flynn (also out of Syracuse).  I think the interesting story here will be the “What-If?” game we can now play with Wes and Flynn.  What if Flynn didn’t forgo his final two years and never played with Wes?  That Cuse team could’ve been good, real good.  We’ll see that magic work in Minnesota… a guy like Johnson can really add a lot to their offense and help them win ball games.

“With the fifth pick in 2010 NBA Draft, the Sacramento Kings select…”
Derrick Favors, F Georgia Tech

What this means:

Sacramento needs to replace the talent that left with Kevin Martin.  Derrick Favors won’t be that guy next year, but this kid should be a phenomenal player in the coming years.  Sacramento doesn’t have a whole lot of prospects, and they are a team that won’t be fighting for a playoff spot in the near future (not in the Western Conference especially), so they can draft a project now to win later.  Tyreke Evans is their guy—him and Favors can build a solid foundation for a good team in the upcoming seasons.

So there you have it—the first five picks of the 2010 NBA Draft.  Let’s see what we can make of it.  I might do a first round mock or a lottery pick mock in the coming weeks, so stay tuned.

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