Toronto Blue Jays fans: Please stop getting your hopes up

Logan on 04 29, 2009

Haven’t Toronto Blue Jays fans learned anything from following this team year in and year out? This franchise continuously underachieves regardless of the amount of talent on their roster annually. I’ve heard rumblings recently that this is Toronto’s year after their 15-7 start, which has them alone in first in the AL East and one game ahead of the surging Boston Red Sox. I’ve even heard of comparisons to last year’s Tampa Bay Rays club. Let me put an end to that right now and tell you why this year will be no different than years past.

The first thing you have to look at is the history of this franchise. Not since 1993 have the Blue Jays won the American League East division. In fact, they’ve only been crowned the Eastern division champion five total times since the division’s inception in 1969.

Looking at recent seasons, the Jays have been off to promising starts before only to squander them quickly enough. In 2008, Toronto went 4-2 against the dominant powers of Boston and New York to start the season, even taking two out of three from the defending champion Red Sox. They finished that promising start to April by losing eight out of their final nine games of the month to sit at 11-17. Then there was 2003 when they started 5-2 which included a five game winning streak. How did they follow that up? By losing twelve out of their next fourteen games.

Now you have to compare what they’ve done this season in getting to 15-7 with the schedule that they’ve played. The Blue Jays have yet to face an AL East opponent, no doubt the toughest division in baseball (featuring the hottest team in the Red Sox). To this point, Toronto has played series against Cleveland, Detroit, Chicago (White Sox), Minnesota, Oakland and Kansas City. The combined record of these six teams is 56-64. The only team in which they have faced that has a winning record is the Detroit Tigers, and they are only 11-10. The Jays have faced two out of the three last place teams in the American League divisions in the Indians and Athletics, picking up four of their fifteen wins against those two teams.

Now let’s look at what the individual players have accomplished thus far.

Aaron Hill: Hill has easily been Toronto’s biggest offensive threat so far as he is batting .371 with 5 home runs and 20 RBI in his 22 games played. What’s the problem with this? Well Aaron Hill is a career .289 hitter, never having hit any higher than .291. He has also never finished with more than 17 home runs or 78 RBI. In his previous four major league seasons he has averaged only 7 home runs and 47 RBI. In other words, if you think his play will continue, you’re insane.

Jose Bautista: This guy is hitting .351 in his thirteen games played. Big contributions from a player who has a career average of .242. He’s already struck out ten times in his 37 AB, meaning he strikes out nearly once every three at bats. In other words, don’t expect him to continue to get on base at the .429 pace he’s on now, especially since his career OBP is .327. Another player clearly overachieving.

Adam Lind: Adam Lind has been Toronto’s DH in 2009. His stat line: .314, 3HR, 18RBI and a .392 OBP. Now compare that to his average season stat line of .276, 7HR, 31RBI and a .319 OBP. He is on pace to absolutely shatter his previous season highs, but he is also bound to hit a wall sooner rather than later.

Scott Richmond: Richmond is a 29 year old pitcher who is only in his second year in the majors. He is 3-0 this season with a 2.70 ERA. Do I really have to further explain why Scott Richmond (who?) can’t continue this pace?

The fact of the matter is, Toronto is in the toughest division in all of baseball and they have yet to face any team in it. Blue Jay fans should know by now to reserve judgment until at least June. Don’t get me wrong, their 15-7 start is impressive, and they have played pretty solid baseball throughout the month of April, but we have seen this before. Expect the Jays to again fade into the background of the AL East and again make baseball fans all over the world feel bad for the wasted talent of Roy Halladay. The month of May features two series against Baltimore, one against New York, and two against the Red Sox. If Toronto is still a couple games above .500 after the upcoming month, I’ll eat my words and give props to this club. But until then, I don’t want to hear anymore about this being the surprising team of 2009.

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  • You Know Who
    And the Jays are in the midst of an 8 game skid...right as they begin to play the rest of the AL East.

    Seems the author was right on point here.
  • You Know Who
    I'm going to go with the latter Bob...
  • Bob
    Logan's Mom's comment was either a great piece of sarcasm or an uninformed rant.
  • You Know Who
    Logan's Mom-

    A. Boston is winning, and with an injury depleted lineup...the only overpaid people on that team are Drew and at the moment Dice-K.
    B. Toronto with the best bullpen in the MLB? No, that would be the Red Sox. I'm assuming your a biased Blue Jay fan with remarks like that.
    C. Youkilis playing way above his head??? How do you figure? He did finish in the top three in MVP voting last season, I would like to hear your reasoning behind this statement.
    D. Bay may not be Ramirez at the plate, although his numbers this season suggest otherwise (look them up before you talk), but you can't ignore the defensive upgrade he brings in the field compared to Manny.
    E. Ortiz is on the decline, there's no argueing that. However, he's bound to pick it up if even a little, eventually...which will only make their already potent offense that much more dangerous.
    F. That Pedroia comment is just stupid....

    Clearly you're the retard, but keep it classy my friend.
  • Logan's Mom
    This was absolutely terrible. This sounds like your standard Boston/New York fan, crying because their overpaid ball club isn't winning every game. Yes, let's look at Lind's career stats, seeing as he's never been a starter. Let's project stats on players who haven't been in the league long enough to know their ceiling. Great idea! Yeah, let's just assume Toronto, who plays .500 against the AL East will, for some reason, with the best hitting lineup in years, the best bullpen in MLB, and one of the deepest rotations, will NOT have a better record. Yeah, keep talking like that. Meanwhile, ignore the fact Youkilis is playing way above his head, Bay is no Ramirez, Ortiz looks 85 years old, and Pedroia's brother is a pedophile.

    Keep it real, retard.
  • You're an idiot. I am dumber for having read this bullshit.
  • It's nice to see Red Sucks fans taking shots at the Jays. Suck it up Sally and get use to it! Go Jays!!
  • At least it appears like the Jays fans are interested. We do care when someone takes pot shots at our team. When's the last time the Yankees won anyway? And the Red Sox took over 80 years to add another WS win.

    Is it wrong that we are happy to have some hope in TO when the Leafs, Raptors, etc are consistently shut down?

    I could pick apart your argument but it's not really worth it as most of my points are already taken by the rest of the "believers".
  • AL East 101
    To the morons who wrote and support this article:

    5 Division Titles and 2 World Series in 30 years is pretty impressive actually. Also, from 1983-1993 the Blue Jays were the winningest team in Baseball.

    How about the fact that the BoSox have only won the AL East 6 times since 1969. 5 since 1977 doesn't sound so bad now.

    It's not really all that hard to use stats to your advantage. Watch "Tampa Bay has won the AL East once since 1969." Well sure, but Tampa didn't join till 1998. I bet this was the same guy saying that Tampa Bay would crash last year too. He's a moron.

    I'm not saying that the Jays will win, but give credit where credit is due. The Jays have played well, guys are stepping up when they are needed, and they are playing good ball. Let's see what happens.
  • You Know Who
    Prosper and the rest of you:

    At the moment (April 30th 12:42 pm) the Red Sox ARE in first place, albeit by percentage points.
  • thebestperiod
    Prosper - I couldn't have said it better myself. It's great to see a team who doesn't have the money like the Sox or Yanks do well. I'm not a Toronto fan but like you said, I'm a fan of good baseball. That's what the Jays are playing right now, good baseball, and it's entertaining and respectable to watch.
  • Prosper
    Why is it that the moment the Sox or Yankee's are not in first, someone comes along to whine about it? I agree with Ionny. I have followed the Jay's for as long as I can remember and Ionny hit the nail on the head. The Jays have been frustrating to watch due to the fact that they play the Sox and Yankee's quite well then squander the momentum and their record by losing to sub par teams. Personally it has been a nice change to see a team other than the usual suspects with a retarded payroll, getting some attention. When all you see in the MLB news is some story about how someone on the Yankee's broke a nail or their hip and how the Sox have an overweight DH that cannot get the bat around his fat ass anymore, it gets a little much. I love baseball but the overkill coverage of the 2 most over rated and bloated teams in the American League is a piss off. I am a Jays fan but I am also a fan of good baseball and there is so much more to see than just the Sox and Yankee's. I am not a naive person so I will not say the Jays will finish the year where they are but I can say, it feels good to see them playing hard and winning. Go Jays!!
  • Ryan
    I'd like to know how many division titles the Blue Jays should have won in their 30 years of existence. Considering it takes most -- if not all -- new franchises years to win a division title, I don't think 5 in 30 is all that disappointing, considering there are 2 World Series wins in there.

    You have to wonder how long that Red Sox winning streak would be if they hadn't played LA, Oakland, Minnesota, Cleveland and the hapless Yankees.
  • I'm a Jays fan, and some of these points are valid. I'm definitely telling myself all that when I'm watching them scrapping away.

    But you're just taking cheapshots and cherry-picking stats when you look at the players. A ton of these guys are very young, and of course Adam Lind's going to smash his career totals. For one thing, it's his first season playing every day. Aaron Hill was only a young player getting better before he got hurt. Who really knows where his ceiling is? Yeah, Scotty Richmond's getting lucky ... but you could also name players like Rios, who is well below his career totals. He probably won't suck all year. And they're doing it with a boatload of quality pitching on the DL. Some of those guys are going to start coming back soon, too.

    So yeah, it's too early to believe for sure ... but don't be so one-sided and petty by way of explanation. That's just you spewing bullshit.
  • Dean Link
    A win is a win no matter against who or at what time of year. You cant take it away. I wonder why if a pitcher is playing bad he is replaced, how does one explain Alex Rios being in the lineup. After tonight he is hitting 237, looks like he could care less and is still pencilled in. For the money he is being paid he not only embarasses himself but the team. I get sick of hearing how he is on the verge of breaking out and what he does in batting practice. Anybody knows that is for the players ego and fan entertainment. Trade him for pitching.
  • Archi
    Please continue discounting the Jays. The lack of pressure to perform and the fact that no one is giving them a chance to do anything is a large reason they're playing so well.
  • lonny
    My Bad. There is no excuse for bad grammar. :)
  • Yeah lonny, if you want to come off as intelligent and make a respectable comment, try to spell words like ACTUAL and ENCOURAGING right. Just a thought. Nice article. Go Sox!
  • You Know Who
    lonny:

    You spelled "incouraging" wrong.

    FYI
  • lonny
    The last 2-4 seasons the Bluejays have played 500 ball against the yankees and red sox, it's the teams which they've just played(the weak ones) that they would have a crap record against(LOOK IT UP --SOME ACTUALL STATISTICS WOULD HELP BEFORE WRITING YOUR ARTICLE). Are the Jays going to keep this up, Not likely, but its enjoyable, unexpected and incouraging so why not be excited. Most of these teams they have fared well against(that have been listed as weak) will not be labeled so at the end of this season.
  • Mac and Me
    Ricky Romero?
  • a
    ok.
    Adam Lind is in his 4th season in the majors, Aaron Hill is in his 5th (one of which was mostly lost to injury). To make comparisons to these seasons as if they have no chance of improvement is ignorant. Most players take time to mature in the majors. Also, to write off Richmond purely based on the fact that he's in his second season is just plain stupid. Yes, the Jays have yet to play any teams in the East, But lets take a look at those teams. New York is at .500, Tampa is 8-13 and Baltimore is 9-13. These are not the power teams of the east we've seen in years past. I agree that playing these teams will be a better test of the Jays, but up until this point the Blue Jays ARE the surprising team of 2009.
    Yes, it is only April 29.
    Yes, they havent played any American League East teams.
    Yes, their young players are playing beyond expectations.
    But to write them off this early in the season would be just as stupid as saying theyre going to win the fall classic at this point in the season.
    My bet? The writer is an angry Yankees fan who hurt his Wang.
    Suck it, Yankees and BoSox.
  • Slurve
    Props on this very informative article, which is in no way biased or created under false outrage
  • some guy
    You Know Who

    -It's not really about the number, rather the early and obvious distortion of facts that identifies the article as one that seeks to make the Jays look as bad as possible.
    -I believe it's worth bringing up because the author makes a point of mentioning that Toronto has only faced one team that's currently over .500 (and Detroit is 2 games over, not 1 game over as stated in the article). Of the teams Toronto's played, only Oakland and Cleveland have failed to win half or more of their games against the other teams they've played. The argument that the opposition wasn't very good doesn't hold a lot of value when the sample size is so small that losing 2 or 3 games to Toronto is the only reason a team's not above .500.
  • Best.
    Title.
    EVER.

    I didn't even get to read the article. I fell out of my chair laughing. Awesome.
  • You Know Who
    some guy:

    -The first point is relavant, although I don't believe 5 division titles since 1977 sounds that much better.
    -I can see your logic behind the second point, but I don't think it's worth mentioning. The opponent's record is the oppenent's record, regardless of whether they've played the Jays or not. The point of the article seems to be in regards to how Toronto is overrated so to speak, so their oppenent's record against the Blue Jays (being overrated and all) is important to consider. If they're opponents can't beat them, then they must also be weak. If that makes sense.
  • some guy
    Worth considering:

    -8 full seasons were played in the AL East before the Jays joined it; shockingly, they failed to win the division even once in that stretch.
    -the combined record of all the teams the Jays have played is exactly .500 against teams other than Toronto
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