Why Stephen Strasburg is destined to be the next Mark Prior

Logan on 06 10, 2009

The 2009 Major League Baseball First-Year Player Draft got underway Tuesday night, something casual baseball fans may be unaware of. However, even the most casual of fans should by now know the name Stephen Strasburg, the man who went first overall to the Washington Nationals.

The 6’5” 220 lbs right-hander out of San Diego State University went 13-1 this season for the Aztecs, posting an impressive 1.32 ERA. Even more impressive was his sheer dominance over hitters consistently during the course of the year. With 195 strikeouts in only 109 innings pitched and an opponent’s batting average of .172, there’s no denying the raw talent displayed by this kid. Strasburg has an incredible fastball that explodes on hitters. Despite the fact that it sits in the high 90’s on a regular basis (sometimes touching 100+ mph), he still generates a lot of movement with it allowing him to use it as an out pitch and in turn keep hitters guessing. He also features a slightly above average slurve-type breaking ball which sits in the mid 80’s, and an average changeup that is generally clocked in around 80-82 mph (a good speed differential in relative to his fastball).

Strasburg has received an unprecedented amount of coverage leading up to Tuesday night’s festivities, and has generated arguably the most hype ever for a pitching prospect. The hype is certainly not unwarranted as this guy possesses a future ace-type arsenal of pitches, however I think the label of a “sure thing” that so many have bestowed upon him is a little premature. There are a few things to consider before we induct him into Cooperstown.

Secondary Pitches: Strasburg’s secondary pitches are undeveloped and cannot truly be relied on as “put-away” pitches at this point in his career. This is mainly attributed to a lack of command. There is a difference between control and command in regards to a pitcher’s ability to locate, and Strasburg’s slurve and changeup are a good representation of this. He has little trouble finding the strike-zone with these two pitches, but for the most part lacks the ability to spot them where he wants in that zone. This is something that he can, and most likely will, develop as he continues to grow. However if he fails to do this, his fastball will be rendered useless at the next level. Just getting those pitches over the plate might be enough to find success in the Mountain West Conference, but it will surely be a different story when facing major league talent day in and day out.

Mental Make-up: According to the scouting report prepared by MLB.com Strasburg has a history of showing negative emotion on the mound, which brings his mental maturity into question. It will be interesting to see how this kid handles adversity, something he will surely experience at the next level, given his mental make-up. A kid receiving this much hype is a negative thing more often than not, it’s not easy to maintain a modest attitude and hard work ethic when you’re constantly being referred to as “the next big thing.”

The Nationals Franchise: Another aspect not mentioned enough is the team he was drafted by. The Washington Nationals don’t have a very positive draft history in the past few years. In fact, going back to 2001 (including a few years in Montreal) this franchise has only produced two current impactful MLB players: Ryan Zimmermann and Chad Cordero. How will the Nationals franchise handle a young player of this caliber? As I said above, his secondary pitches are nowhere near MLB ready, and if he’s rushed it could be immensely detrimental to his development.

The “Inverted W”: Lastly, but most importantly, are the mechanical questions in regards to his delivery. This is where Mark Prior’s name comes in. Prior, much like Strasburg, was one of the most highly touted pitching prospects of the past twenty years. However, these two pitchers share another alarming similarity, and it’s known as the “Inverted W.” It has been said that Strasburg’s delivery is heavily influenced by Prior’s as it is remarkably similar. The “Inverted W” is the way the arms appear in the form of a W while addressing the plate prior to the release of a pitch. While this isn’t necessarily a negative 100% of the time, it does result in extra pressure on the elbow and often causes a pitcher to rush his delivery. This makes Strasburg a high injury risk. This could also be the reasoning behind his tendency to elevate his fastball from time to time.

MLB prospects remain one of the most difficult to accurately project in all of sports, and the pitcher position is the toughest of all. There’s no telling what kind of career Strasburg will experience. Most believe he can have the immediate impact of someone such as David Price, others (such as myself) see his career following the path of a Mark Prior. Best-case scenario in my eyes is a John Smoltz type career, someone who is dominant when healthy, but will continually struggle with elbow/shoulder problems.

Stephen Strasburg is a long way from being a “sure thing,” and if the Nationals organization isn’t careful in the way that they handle this kid, they may be looking at baseball’s version of “The Incredible Bust” Tony Mandarich.

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  • Bo$ox
    You're nuts if you don't think this guy is going to be a great talent...he has literally every tool you could want in a pitcher.
  • YouKnowWho
    @ Bo$ox:

    It's too hard to call any baseball prospect a sure thing, the transfer from HS or College baseball to the big leagues is extremely difficult...moreso for a pitcher than any other position.

    I don't think it's a stretch to say there's a solid chance he becomes a bust...especially given that whole "Inverted W" thing...
  • YouKnowWho
    I think there should have been some mention of the fact that his agent is the Devil...anytime the devil is managing your career ur already in bad shape
  • I didn't know Drew Rosenhaus was an MLB agent.
  • YouKnowWho
    Dolemite: Scott Boras is nearly as bad in my opinion...
  • Agreed. Strasburg has a lonnnnng ways to go. As we've seen in the sporting world, raw talent doesn't equate to success. It takes a level head and mental toughness. This kid might let all the hype get to his head. Another important factor is the team's organization. It takes talent in the front office to mold raw talent such as Strasburg into an all-star, and it's pretty apparent the Nationals organization is one of the worst. He's got a lot to live up to, and given the organization and mental questions with him, I don't see him doing it. I think the only player to truly live up to all the enormous hype is Lebron James, and he is a different breed. In regards to Strasburg developing into the next Mark Prior, I wouldn't doubt it. It'll be interesting to see how this kid handles the situation.
  • There's no way that the Nattie's should bring this kid up yet. They better or not or I'm going to be pissed. You gotta groom a kid.
  • YouKnowWho
    Not only do you have to groom a kid, but aside from a boost in attendance, what possible positive impact could this kid have if brought up immediatly? This team isn't going anywhere anytime soon...might as well let him work on those secondary pitches in the minors for a few years.

    Anthough I think late in the season you could possibly bring him up for a spot start to help gauge how close he is to being "big league ready."
  • Either way, I'd like to see him a Natti's uni as soon as possible.
  • Sasskuash
    I think the "history" of showing emotion on the mound is highly overblown. He did show emotion as a high school pitcher, but since then he has shown that he matured and can handle himself calmly and professionally.
    Being a Nats fan (go ahead, laugh, I understand) I've read as many articles as I could find about this kid. He did show emotion on the mound in high school. At that time, he was overweight, did not train properly and did not focus on strengthening his body. These are some of the reasons he was not even drafted out of high school. Since then he has completely transformed his body through an intense training program and strict diet. As a freshman, he was a successful closer for San Diego State. This is a high-pressure situation and I never read any problems with him losing his temper. He was the only college player on the USA olympic baseball team, and pitched very well at that high level, without showing undue emotion. He handled this past collegiate baseball season under intense scrutiny of major league scouts from every team and the national media. I cannot imagine many more intimidating or stressful conditions for a 21 year old to face. He did not show any signs of emotion or immaturity. He got into jams and pitched out of them calmly and without needing coaches visits to cool his head. I just think that he has done more than enough to rid himself of the reputation that may have carried over from when he was a teenager. Since then he has shown incredible mental toughness, maturation and discipline to get him where he is today.

    I do share your concerns about injury. I pray he can stay healthy and become 1/2 of what his hype suggests he is.
  • Dustin
    Secondary pitches:
    His secondary stuff is great. His slurve is ungodly. His change-up is average, but any change in speed is good when you throw 98 consistently.

    Mental make-up:
    He hasn't had a breakdown in two years. His breakdowns were in high school, and he went undrafted because of it.

    Nationals franchise:
    If he fails, it won't be because of who he was drafted by. That's such a terrible argument. The draft is a crapshoot from the beginning. Strasburg would have the same chances of succeeding or failing with any team, no matter who drafted him.

    Inverted W:
    It's hard to argue against this, because the Inverted W does have me worried about him, but, mechanics aren't a science. It's a guess. Nobody knows whether his body will hold up or not. It differs from person to person.

    I agree with you saying he's not a sure thing yet, but the arguments that you used were incredibly poor.
  • Dorn
    So much bad information in this article, it's laughable. Pretty sure scouts have raved about his slider and how he's able to put it where he wants to. Yeah, he misses with it now and then, but what pitcher outside of Maddux doesn't miss his spot? His changeup is a work in progress, but has still been said to be a major league changeup at this point.

    Emotion on the mound? He's had that in check for a while now. As someone already pointed out, in high school and his first season with the Aztecs, he had problems with it. Not so much anymore. He's matured, and he knows it. Gwynn has said he's seen a huge improvement in him. His pitching coach has said the same thing.

    And last I checked, Prior didn't really have elbow problems. Only problem he had with his elbow was taking a Brad Hawpe line drive off of it. Everything else was his shoulder, which was initially damaged after running into Marcus Giles. After that, bad surgeries plagued him.

    But hey, nice try at attempting to care them and write off Strasburg as a flash in the pan before injuries cripple him.
  • Bob
    @Dorn, I don't see Roy Halladay miss his spots too much
  • @Dustin, the Nationals franchise does have a big impact on a pitcher. If a pitcher doesn't have the proper run support and is losing games because of his squad his confidence will most likely dip (especially if they're young). Confidence dips, next thing you know his skill dips right along with it.
  • Dustin
    @Dolemite

    I understand that, but we don't know how long it will be until the Nationals bring him up. And even when they do, the Nationals don't have a bad offense. I think people write them off just because they are the Nationals, but their line-up is far from terrible.
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